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Another Reason We Can’t Fully Trust China’s Solar Installation Numbers

After dealing with interconnection delays, solar developers are now facing curtailment on China’s grid.
 
Skynet Solar
July 29, 2015





China's solar installation figures look impressive on paper. As of June, the country had installed a cumulative 35 gigawatts of projects -- an impressive feat considering that its domestic PV market was virtually nonexistent five years ago.

But those figures don't tell us much about the performance of projects.

We've seen increasing reports about defective panels and project design flaws limiting solar electricity production. In January, Bloomberg reported that 23 percent of panels sampled around the country failed to meet China's technical standards. Project owners have also faced interconnection delays, which served to cut installations by 3 gigawatts in 2014 compared to 2013 levels.

New figures from China's National Energy Administration show another problem looming for solar project owners: curtailment.

Across the country, solar power plants are fighting with coal plants for access to the grid while nationwide growth in electricity consumption slows. In many cases, solar is losing. According to Chinese government data released this week, 9 percent of the country's solar output was curtailed through the first half of the year due to grid constraints.

In Gansu province, 28 percent of solar generation never made it onto the grid; in Xinjiang province, 19 percent of solar electricity was cut back.

From January through June, NEA reports that solar projects around the country generated 19 terawatt-hours of electricity.

The capacity installation figures are still strong. In the first half of the year, 7.7 gigawatts of projects were completed -- 6.6 gigawatts of them utility-scale and 1.1 gigawatts distributed.

However, the curtailment issue could cause problems for developers that are already dealing with a slow subsidy distribution process.

"Idle capacity cuts into the feed-in tariff payments that solar plants receive, and indicates there is a larger problem of weak electricity consumption. A miscalculation on demand will undermine the amount gathered for the feed-in tariff surcharge, potentially further delaying payments down the road," said Adam James, a senior analyst at GTM Research focused on global demand.

China's feed-in tariff program is already plagued by administrative delays. Forcing producers to cut back on their generation will make things more financially complicated for project owners.

The problem is not unique to solar. For years, wind producers in China have had trouble connecting to the grid. And when they do connect, the government often forces them to halt electricity production. According to Reuters, one-fifth of China's wind electricity was curtailed in the first three months of 2015.

By 2020, China could be installing 24 gigawatts of solar PV projects yearly, according to GTM Research. But will they be granted access to the grid? That remains uncertain.

"Despite solar receiving strong incentive support and installations reaching record-setting highs, the Chinese electricity market is still grappling with serious structural challenges," said James.

For more on China's complicated solar market, listen to our conversation with Adam James on GTM's Energy Gang podcast:

TAGS :-  Residential Solar Power, Solar Energy Services Company, Solar Power Los Angeles

SunPower’s Global PV Project Pipeline Is More Than 12 Gigawatts

The company’s average solar-cell efficiency is “close to 23 percent.”

Skynet Solar
July 29, 2015




 SunPower's stock is up 10 percent since its second-quarter earnings call this week.

The vertically integrated solar provider achieved three "key milestones" this quarter, according to CEO Tom Werner.
Key milestones

• SunPower and First Solar launched the joint YieldCo 8point3 Energy: SunPower asserts that "8point3 Energy Partners will provide us a significant long-term cost-of-capital advantage and enhance the scale and predictability of our future cash flows."
• SunPower acquired the 1.5-gigawatt U.S. solar project development pipeline of Infigen Energy: The $38 million acquisition included approximately 35 solar projects ranging up to 100 megawatts with project build-out through 2020. Three projects totaling 55 megawatts have PPAs in place with SCE, with completion expected next year. These projects will likely join the "portfolio of potential drop-down assets" for the YieldCo. UBS suggests, "This deal should help SunPower's project pipeline and relieve some concern about the U.S. being a viable market when/if the ITC is reduced. Furthermore, these projects will likely be dropped into CAFD."
• Signed residential solar partnerships with three U.S. utilities: SunPower inked channel partnerships with Dominion Retail and ConEdison Solutions (as well as an undisclosed partner) for the competitive New Jersey and New York electricity markets. ConEdison Solutions is a competitive electricity and natural gas provider and Con Ed's retail arm. SunPower's Werner told GTM that these partnerships are indicators that utilities really want to be involved in solar deployment.

Takeaways from the earnings call

• The U.S. and Japanese markets continue to drive SunPower's distributed generation business.
• SunPower is hitting record yield, with average solar-cell efficiency "close to 23 percent" across all lines.
• The company expects manufacturing to grow to from ~1,500 megawatts this year to almost 2 gigawatts next year. 
• The 579-megawatt Solar Star project for Berkshire Hathaway Energy and SCE is fully grid-connected.
• Signed the largest school-district solar contract in the U.S. with Kern High School District, with 22 megawatts to be deployed over 27 sites
• The company's commercial project pipeline now exceeds $1 billion, and there is talk of the launch of new commercial products.
• Power plants accounted for 43 percent of revenue, residential for 40 percent.
• SunPower will be installing fewer of the C7 concentrators in China this year. 

Chart: SunPower Q2 Financial Results

Bullish solar growth forecastSunPower boosted its megawatts deployment forecast from a CAGR of 25 percent to 30 percent for 2013-2019 (compared to a guidance provided in 2014), with deployments growing from ~1,275 megawatts in 2015 to nearly 4 gigawatts in 2019.

2015 guidance
SunPower anticipates 2015 non-GAAP revenue of $2.4 billion to $2.6 billion, gross margin of 21 percent to 23 percent, and deployments of 1,250 to 1,300 megawatts. For Q3 2015, SunPower expects GAAP revenue of $400 million to $450 million and gross margin of 10 percent to 12 percent. The company will be relying more on the EBITDA metric and expects an EBITDA of $0 to $15 million on 300 to 330 deployed megawatts for the quarter.

The 8point3 YieldCo (CAFD)
UBS suggests that "a frantic M&A methodology would be much more difficult to maintain over the long term. Given [SunPower's] more measured approach to CAFD and decision not to chase accelerated IDR levels, we believe investors will continue to discount the story vs. peers. That said, we see recent success at SunPower in expanding its own backlog and development acquisitions as improving the overall quality and duration of its drop-down backlog, putting CAFD on track to eventually have among the greatest long-term drop-down visibility."

UBS adds that SunPower is "continuing to position [itself] as fundamentally a tech company rather than following its peer SunEdison in redefining as a General Partnership around its YieldCo structure. Rather, SunPower appears to view its CAFD vehicle as the principal, but not necessarily the only, drop-down vehicle, in contrast to other industry peers. Not only are projects outside of the core OECD geographic focus not drop-down candidates, but SunPower anticipates providing modules and developing projects for other industry partners still."

SunPower’s shares traded up about 10 percent today. 

TAGS :- Solar energy services company, Solar System Installers, Solar Power Company

72% of US Residential Solar Installed in 2014 Was Third-Party Owned !

Direct ownership is set to overtake third-party ownership by 2020.

Skynet Solar
July 29, 2015 

 

 

Of the 1.2 gigawatts of residential solar installed in the U.S. last year, 72 percent was third-party owned (TPO) in the form of leases and PPAs. The remainder was directly owned by the customer, much of it through loans. That’s according to the newest report from GTM Research, U.S. Residential Solar Financing 2015-2020.

FIGURE: Residential Third-Party Ownership Penetration and Installations by Ownership Type

Source: GTM Research U.S. Residential Solar Financing 2015-2020

The U.S. residential market segment has grown 15 of the last 16 quarters, and that’s largely due to financing solutions like leases. Since TPO took off a few years ago, the offerings have given customers across many demographics and socioeconomic categories the ability to afford a solar installation.

According to the report, three companies financed 56 percent of all U.S. residential solar installations in 2014. SolarCity led the nation with 34 percent, followed by Vivint Solar’s 12 percent and Sunrun’s 10 percent. Other leading finance providers included SunPower, NRG Home Solar, Sunnova and Clean Power Finance.

FIGURE: Leading U.S. Residential Solar Financiers, 2014

Source: GTM Research U.S. Residential Solar Financing 2015-2020.

Note: Market shares in this figure include each company’s 2014 financed systems (both TPO and direct) as a portion of all 2014 residential installed PV. The report also includes shares of the TPO market alone.

“The solar loan market has exploded,” said Senior Solar Analyst Nicole Litvak. “Every TPO financier has introduced or is planning to introduce a loan, and an entirely separate group of pure-play loan providers has emerged. Many of these new loans are structured such that they offer customers the same year-one savings as a lease or PPA.”

 GTM Research forecasts that by 2020, direct ownership will surpass third-party ownership in the U.S. residential solar market, accounting for 54 percent of the forecasted 5.2-gigawatt market.

The full report provides historical market shares for the top financiers, profiles leading finance providers, and details the market landscape. For more information, visit the report page here.

TAGS:-  Solar Company Los Angeles | Home Solar Power System | Solar Power Company

The Solar Industry Stands Divided Over California’s 50% Renewable Energy Target
The Solar Industry Stands Divided Over California’s 50% Renewable Energy Target.

 These days, it’s rare to see rooftop solar installers and investor-owned utilities aligned on state policy issues. But in California, the two industry groups are both lobbying for behind-the-meter solar to count toward the state’s expanded renewable portfolio standard.

SB 350, the “Clean Energy and Pollution Reduction Act of 2015,” seeks to increase the state’s renewable energy target from 33 percent by 2020, to 50 percent by 2030. It also calls for cutting petroleum use in the transportation sector by half, and doubling the energy efficiency of buildings over the next 15 years.

The bill has already passed the California Senate, and is now making its way through the Assembly.

One of the issues both utilities and solar installers have raised is that distributed solar should not be treated any differently than utility-scale solar as the state crafts the rules around meeting the new 50 percent target. As the RPS stands today, California utilities are only required to buy energy and renewable energy credits (RECs) from utility-scale solar plants.

In a letter to the Assembly Committee on Utilities and Commerce, Southern California Edison wrote, “state policy should not pick technology winners and losers, favoring only utility-scale renewables, and instead must recognize all [greenhouse gas]-reducing strategies toward the state’s ambitious goals, and count renewable distributed generation as a means to achieve the RPS and state climate goals.”

Pacific Gas & Electric has made the same argument, calling on the Assembly to include an amendment that would “expand the scope of eligible renewable resources to include distributed generation facilities such as rooftop solar that the state already acknowledges are renewable, yet do not count toward the RPS goal.”

This change would give utilities more ways to meet the lofty 50 percent RPS goal. It would also give them a potentially more affordable way to meet the goal by leveraging existing and future private investment toward meeting the RPS, rather than necessarily having to contract for new large-scale projects using ratepayer dollars.

"Given significant uncertainty in regulatory policy, we are concerned that failing to give ‘behind-the-meter’ solar equal treatment jeopardizes the future growth of this segment of the industry and could leave hundreds of millions of dollars in private investment on the table,” said The Alliance for Solar Choice (TASC), a solar lobbying group, in a letter to the Assembly.

“It’s important to note that California solar customers and solar developers are utilizing private capital, and not ratepayer dollars, to deploy these systems,” the letter added. “We believe that leveling the RPS playing field will increase compliance flexibility and help reduce overall RPS compliance costs as well as help better align utility interest with those of consumers in the deployment of distributed generation.”

Rooftop solar is one of the fastest-growing sources of clean energy in the U.S., especially in California, where there are already 200,000 installed projects and 50,000 people employed by the industry. And yet, according to TASC, California is the only state in the country that does not count distributed solar toward the state’s RPS goal, either through a distributed generation carve-out or by generating RECs.

The issue has made strange bedfellows of power companies and rooftop solar installers, which have clashed in several states over the future of net energy metering. Meanwhile, it has pitted rooftop solar companies against large-scale solar installers, which are actively lobbying against the RPS change.

“The RPS is the single most important driver for wholesale renewables in California, and probably in the country,” said Shannon Eddy, executive director of the Large-Scale Solar Association. “Without the RPS mandate in place, utilities typically don’t buy wholesale renewable energy, so it is one of the only drivers we have available.”

"Keep them in separate programs"
To say that rooftop solar is entirely excluded from the California RPS as it exists today is not entirely accurate. The RPS is divided into three categories, or buckets, and while rooftop solar does not qualify under categories one and two, it is technically able to generate RECs under category three, the “unbundled RECs” category.

“The question is, why do the rooftop advocates want behind-the-meter solar in bucket one?” said Eddy. “It will in no way affect rooftop purchasing behavior, but it will dampen the wholesale market.”

“This isn't an either-or conversation -- we need all of it, we need as much solar on-line from rooftop and wholesale to meet our climate goals, and the best way to do that is to keep them in separate programs,” she said.

The controversy here is that utilities are not required to buy RECs from customer-sited projects under category three, whereas they are required to buy energy and RECs from utility-scale projects under category one.

Equally important is that category three RECs have been eligible for a dwindling share of annual REC compliance obligations. In the final 2017-2020 timeframe of the RPS, category three RECs can account for 10 percent or less of the compliance requirements. Over the same period, category one projects must account for 70 percent or more of the requirements.

If distributed solar projects were allowed to produce RECs under bucket one, it would serve as an additional income stream for the industry -- and a potentially pivotal income stream, with the federal Investment Tax Credit set to expire at the end of 2016.

“The rooftop solar industry is a startup industry that needs certainty in order to thrive,” wrote Lauren Randall, manager of public policy at Sunrun, in an email. “If we don't count rooftop solar, we're putting the industry at risk. That means putting tens of thousands of jobs at risk, and jeopardizing a resource that delivers significant water savings during a time of major drought.”

This week, SB 350 passed in the Assembly Committee on Natural Resources and was transferred to the Appropriations Committee. The bill has been amended to require the Public Utilities Commission to consider the economic and environmental benefits of distributed solar. The PUC may also authorize utilities to procure a certain percent of their retail sales from onsite generation to meet local electricity needs, but the bill leaves that percent figure blank.

The amendments will help to move the conversation forward, but the issue of giving rooftop solar equal standing with utility-scale solar under RPS has yet to be resolved. California's legislative session ends on September 11.
Residential Solar Power system in California.
 

Con Edison: Utility Ownership of Large-Scale Renewables Will Drive Down Costs

Con Edison’s Christopher Raup argues that utilities can operate projects at a much lower cost to ratepayers.







New York is aggressively pursuing more renewable energy and has set a challenging target of 50 percent renewable energy by 2030, twice the amount installed in the state now.

Con Edison is willing to play an active role in achieving this goal, including accepting an obligation to procure renewable energy for its customers. Meeting this goal will require an “all-of-the-above” strategy that must include adding large-scale renewable resources such as solar and wind farms.

But it will also force us to answer an important question: Is it better to rent renewable energy projects from third-party developers or to have utilities own those assets for the benefit of all electric customers?

Over the past 10 years, Americans have consistently supported renewable energy. Surveys find that a majority of Americans believe the country should place more emphasis on developing solar and wind resources.

Utilities are stewards of critical energy infrastructure, and their value should not be overlooked when it comes to developing large-scale renewables.

Smaller distributed renewables and large-scale renewables are complementary resources in the state’s clean energy portfolio. Both types of resources will be needed, and New York is now considering its next-generation policy options for developing large-scale renewables. Distributed renewables can provide load relief and serve as alternatives to traditional utility investments; larger, grid-scale projects are a cost-effective way to reduce carbon emissions.

The good news is that utility ownership on behalf of customers is being discussed. The bad news is that the state is still considering procuring large-scale renewables using long-term power-purchase agreements (PPAs) between utilities and third-party developers.

Con Edison believes customers would benefit most if utilities could competitively solicit renewable energy developers to design and construct projects, and then purchase and own the projects on behalf of customers.  Our analysis shows that utility ownership can be up to 30 percent less expensive for customers than a PPA with a utility.

There is hidden value in the renewable energy market that policymakers leave on the table when they focus on PPAs with utilities.

Here's a simple way to think about it: is it better to rent or own an asset that will be needed over a long period of time? Owning would be cheaper.

Utility ownership is preferable because it allows customers to benefit directly in future asset valuation, one of the reasons that utility ownership is less expensive than utility-backed PPAs.

Low cost of capital is the key to reducing costs for customers in a capital-intensive industry. Utilities have access to low-cost capital, and financing renewable energy as efficiently as possible should be a primary policy goal.

While developers of renewable energy can secure competitive financing with a utility-backed PPA, their ability to secure it exists because lenders see the contract as supported by utility credit. In essence, it’s the same as the utility financing the project itself.

But with a PPA, any future value from the renewable resource accrues to the developer and not to customers. In addition, if utilities own renewable energy projects, the state will be assured access to those projects -- whereas developers can sell the output of projects they own to out-of-state entities once their initial PPA ends.

There are also other downsides associated with PPAs, since these contracts could reduce the utility’s credit rating, raising costs for all utility customers.

A better model is one that takes advantage of the project design, development and construction skills of renewable energy developers and the low cost of financing and rewards for customers of utility ownership. Utilities can manage solicitations for renewable energy projects from developers who compete to develop, build and commission the projects, and then turn to utilities for ownership and maintenance.

Additionally, the utility as owner can auction off the renewable energy to large customers with business sustainability goals, further reducing the cost of renewable ownership for customers.

Leveraging the capabilities of both renewable energy developers and utilities will help the state meet its renewable energy goals at a lower cost than other models. And that’s worth pursuing for everyone’s benefit.
Los Angels Solar System and Solar System Installation in California.

Utility Solar May Cost Less, But It’s Also Worth Less

John Farrell disputes a new study showing that utility-scale solar is the cheapest option.





 A new report released last week asserts that utility-scale solar is much more economical than small-scale solar. The clear implication is that we should let incumbent utilities build or buy solar from large-scale arrays instead of allowing customers to generate their own power.

There are several reasons to seriously question the mistaken assertion that big solar is better.

Follow the money
First, this study is funded, in part, by the Edison Electric Institute. The Institute is the for-profit utility trade group whose 2013 report on “disruptive challenges” suggests, among other things, that utilities have to fight back against distributed solar energy as a revenue threat. Their members include many utilities proposing or implementing higher charges on their customers to make small solar less economical. In other words, the sponsors of this study have a financial interest in slowing the growth of small-scale solar.

Second, the report is prepared for First Solar, a Wal-Mart-family-supported solar developer that views rooftop solar as a competitive threat to its utility-scale solar business. In other words, the study was commissioned by a company whose financial interest is in reducing competition from small-scale solar.

Question the assumptions
In theory, we could find objective study results despite biased funders, but you won’t find them here. Let’s talk about a few of the titanic omissions in the study's comparison of large- and small-scale solar.

Utility-scale solar and residential solar aren’t comparable on a levelized-cost basis, because only one delivers power at the point of use (residential solar). Utility-scale solar has to get to customers, and that requires access to (and often construction of) high-voltage transmission infrastructure that is not only controversial, but expensive.

The following chart, based on a Clean Coalition analysis from 2011, shows that transmission costs for large-scale solar projects can outweigh the economies of scale that come from their large size.

 Cost can be higher, but value is lower for solar energy from centralized solar arrays. For example, numerous studies on the value of solar energy (and one state law) illustrate the particular grid benefits of distributed solar that utility-scale doesn’t provide, including reduced line losses, deferred distribution system maintenance, avoided transmission capital expense, and increased resiliency.

It’s not just a theory; it’s an industry practice. When Geronimo Energy pitched Xcel Energy on 100 megawatts of new solar capacity in Minnesota, the company promised to build it in chunks of 2 megawatts to 10 megawatts each that it asserts “will deliver many benefits, including a reduction in line loss, elimination of transmission costs, and geographic diversification of generation assets.”

The following chart, illustrating Minnesota’s value-of-solar formula, shows particular values that only apply to distributed solar like that on residential rooftops.

 

 Distributed solar also has substantial economic benefits of interest to electric customers, if not their monopoly utilities. For example, 1 megawatt of solar that is locally owned rather than utility-owned means as much as $5.7 million in lifetime economic benefits for a community. And the dramatic rise in residential and commercial rooftop solar arrays suggests electric customers see a clear economic opportunity in generating their own power.

Question the purpose
It’s tempting to accept the assertion that bigger is better, especially for environmentalists seeking the most rapid transition to clean energy. But the truth is that distributed solar competes on cost and value, and it’s a faster way to a cleaner power sector.

Look no further than world-leader Germany, where more than 25 percent of annual electricity production comes from renewable energy, 7 percent from solar alone. The vast majority of German solar arrays (70 percent) are 500 kilowatts or smaller (less than the size of an Ikea rooftop).

In contrast, the splashy 550-megawatt Topaz Solar Array took seven years to develop and construct, during which time over 8,000 megawatts of distributed residential and commercial solar were installed in the U.S. Don’t forget that, like Germany, thousands of these distributed solar arrays are locally owned, widely distributing the economic benefits of the clean energy transformation.

The issue of economic benefits may be the central point. Utility-scale solar safely fits within the antiquated 20th century centralized monopoly model of electricity delivery, insulating utilities from innovative customer-centered distributed power. In fact, a late 2014 study highlighted that net metering of distributed solar is a minor threat to ratepayers, but a much more significant threat to utility shareholders.

There’s nothing wrong with building utility-scale solar. But let’s be clear: it’s neither the most economic nor the fastest way to green the electricity sector, and it cements centralized control of electricity system in an era of widespread decentralized innovation. And that may be too high a price to pay.

Solar Energy in Los Angels Services Company.